#148 overall · MIN · 82.1 projected half-PPR pts · -28.0 Draft Value
Aaron Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Aaron Jones is a receiving back with a real role in the passing game. In 2024 he posted 51 receptions on 62 targets for 408 receiving yards alongside 1,138 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on 255 attempts. That is the kind of three-down workload that keeps a back relevant in half-PPR formats. His three-year averages back up the receiving involvement: 48.7 targets and 36.3 receptions per season. If that usage holds in Minnesota, he remains a contributor even in weeks where the ground game stalls.
What the model projects
The projection is 114.2 half-PPR fantasy points. Jones sits at RB33 and #106 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -14.2, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 116.8 points, close to the point estimate. These are late-roster numbers, not a featured-back projection.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 142 | 656 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 233 | 1 | 2 | 119.9 |
| 2024 | 255 | 1138 | 5 | 62 | 51 | 408 | 2 | 5 | 216.1 |
| 2025 | 132 | 548 | 2 | 41 | 28 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 104.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 176.3 | 780.7 | 3 | 48.7 | 36.3 | 280 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 150.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 34.8 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 69.3 points, still a thin return on a roster spot. The median sits at 116.8, the 75th percentile reaches 161.7, and the top 10% of simulated seasons climbs to 205.2 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a season resembling his 2024 production would push Jones well into startable territory. The floor, however, is low enough that he carries real bust risk. His fumble history adds to that variance: 5 fumbles and 3 lost in 2024, 2 fumbles and 1 lost in 2023, and 1 fumble and 1 lost in 2025.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Jones at pick 106.1, which works out to the 9th round, 10th pick in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #106 overall. At that draft slot he is a depth piece and a handcuff-range selection, not a player you build around. His bye is Week 6, worth noting when setting your roster. Target him as a late-round flier on the upside scenario his 2024 season demonstrated is possible, with clear eyes on the downside the band describes.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 114.2 points and a draft value of -14.2 place him below replacement level at RB, ranking RB33 and #106 overall in Tier 9. He is a depth/flex option, not a core piece, but the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 205.2 points, so the upside exists.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 48.7 targets and 36.3 receptions per year. His best season in that span was 2024: 62 targets, 51 receptions, and 408 receiving yards, which is a meaningful pass-game role for a running back in half-PPR.
The market ADP is 106.1, or round 9, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is where he is currently going in public drafts.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 34.8 half-PPR points, essentially a non-contributor. The 25th percentile is 69.3 points. His fumble history, including 5 fumbles and 3 lost in 2024, is part of what drives that downside.
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Beyond the rankings
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