#96 overall · BUF · 137.6 projected half-PPR pts · -8.2 Draft Value
Buffalo Bills — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Buffalo has been one of the more active defenses in the league over the past three seasons by raw production volume. The three-year averages tell the story: 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, and 11.7 fumbles recovered per season. The 2023 peak was genuinely impressive, with 53 sacks, 18 interceptions, and 14 forced fumbles in a single year. That kind of turnover and pressure production is the engine of DST fantasy scoring, and Buffalo has shown it can run that engine at a high level. The unit also contributes in the touchdown column, averaging 2.3 defensive touchdowns per season across the three-year window. For a drafter who wants a DST with a proven track record of generating big plays, the historical resume here is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 137.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That places Buffalo at DST5 and #94 overall, sitting in Tier 9. The draft value is -8.2, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number reflects a unit that has seen its sack total decline from 53 in 2023 to 37 in 2024 and 36 in 2025, and its points-against rise from 311 in 2023 to 368 in 2024 and 365 in 2025. The three-year average points-against of 348 is the baseline the projection is working from. Buffalo's bye falls in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster planning.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 53 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 3 | — | 311 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 170.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 368 | — | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 143.0 |
| 2025 | 36 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | — | 365 | — | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 115.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 42 | 15.7 | 15 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 348 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 126.2 |
The range of outcomes
The year-to-year variance in this unit's history is wide enough to take seriously. In 2023, Buffalo posted 53 sacks and 18 interceptions with only 311 points allowed. In 2024 and 2025, sacks dropped to the mid-to-upper 30s, interceptions fell to 16 and then 13, and points allowed climbed above 360 both years. Fumble recoveries swung from 12 in 2023 to 16 in 2024 and then down to 7 in 2025. Defensive touchdowns held at 2 in both 2024 and 2025 after hitting 3 in 2023. The unit has demonstrated it can produce at an elite level in a given season, but the more recent trend lines point toward a more modest baseline. A rebound in sack rate or turnover luck could push the actual outcome meaningfully above the projection; a continuation of the 2024-2025 pattern keeps it near or below it.
How to draft him
Buffalo does not have a market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. At DST5 and #94 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -8.2, this is a below-replacement-level projection in a 12-team half-PPR format. The standard DST strategy applies: wait as long as possible, target the position in the final rounds, and treat the historical upside as a reason to prefer Buffalo over other late options if it is still available. The Week 7 bye is an early one, so factor in a streaming plan for that week regardless of which DST you roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 137.6 points with a draft value of -8.2, which puts Buffalo below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. At DST5 and #94 overall in Tier 9, the ranking reflects a unit that has seen sacks decline from 53 in 2023 to 36 in 2025 and points allowed rise from 311 to 365 over the same span. The historical upside is real, but the projection does not support spending an early pick on this unit.
The three-year averages show 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, and 11.7 fumbles recovered per season. However, the individual seasons vary considerably: sacks went from 53 in 2023 to 37 in 2024 to 36 in 2025, interceptions dropped from 18 to 16 to 13, and fumble recoveries swung from 12 to 16 to 7. Points allowed rose from 311 in 2023 to 368 in 2024 and 365 in 2025. The unit has shown a high ceiling but the recent trend lines are less favorable.
Buffalo's bye is in Week 7, which is on the earlier side of the schedule. If you do draft them, plan to have a streaming option ready for that week. It is a practical roster management consideration regardless of how highly you value the unit.
The projection is 137.6 points. The 2023 season, when Buffalo posted 53 sacks, 18 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles, and only 311 points allowed, shows what the upside looks like when the unit is operating at its best. A rebound toward those sack and turnover numbers, combined with tighter scoring defense, would be the path to a meaningfully better outcome than the current projection.
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Beyond the rankings
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