#312 overall · CHI · 42.2 projected half-PPR pts · -73.6 Draft Value
Sam Roush — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Sam Roush is a tight end on the Chicago Bears roster with a bye in Week 10. At TE41 and #286 overall, the case for drafting him in a standard 12-team snake draft is narrow by design. Tier 9 is deep in the rankings, and a draftValue of -80.4 means the projection sits well below replacement level at the position. The honest case is a late-flier one: if you are deep into a draft and need a tight end to stash, Roush is a name to know. Nothing more, nothing less.
What the model projects
The projection is 42.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is the headline number. The median simulated season lands at 38.8 points, slightly below the point estimate, which signals the distribution has a modest upside tail pulling the projection above the midpoint. At -80.4 in draft value, the model places him 80.4 points below the replacement-level baseline for tight ends in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which is the defining characteristic of a player at this tier. In a bad season, the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes lands at 6.0 points. The 25th percentile is 17.9 points. The median is 38.8 points. The 75th percentile reaches 63.4 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 97.1 points. That spread from 6.0 to 97.1 is enormous relative to a 42.1-point projection, reflecting high variance in what a season from Roush could actually look like.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Roush does not have a consistent enough presence across public draft platforms to produce a market ADP, so there is no pick number to anchor a drafting strategy around. In practice, that means he is available as a free agent or a final-round dart in most drafts. At #286 overall and TE41, he belongs at the very back end of a draft if he is selected at all. Target him only after your starter and a backup at tight end are already secured.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 42.1 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 38.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated outcomes reaches 97.1 points.
He ranks TE41 at his position and #286 overall, placing him in Tier 9 of the rankings with a draft value of -80.4, which is below replacement level for the position.
Roush does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register one. He is effectively a free agent or final-round option in most 12-team drafts.
Quite a bit. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 6.0 points, the median is 38.8, and the 90th percentile is 97.1 points. That is a very wide band relative to a 42.1-point projection.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.