#283 overall · DEN · 44.5 projected half-PPR pts · -65.7 Draft Value
Jonah Coleman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonah Coleman is a Denver Broncos running back sitting at RB57 in a 12-team half-PPR context. His draftValue is negative at -62.1, which places him #242 overall in Tier 9. At this stage of a draft, the conversation is not about upside on paper — it is about whether a late-round flier can outperform a thin replacement pool. Coleman's projection of 65.4 half-PPR points is modest, but the band tells a more interesting story: his p90 outcome reaches 140.2 points, which means roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces a genuinely useful fantasy contributor. For a drafter building depth or stashing a handcuff, that ceiling is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 65.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 55.8 points, a touch below the point estimate. The draftValue of -62.1 reflects a position below replacement level at RB in a 12-team half-PPR league. Coleman is in Tier 9, the deepest tier in these rankings.
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the p10 is 6.8 points — a season where Coleman contributes almost nothing. The p25 sits at 24.4 points, still well below replacement. The median (p50) is 55.8 points. From there the band opens up: the p75 is 97.4 points and the p90 reaches 140.2 points. That spread from floor to ceiling is among the defining features of his profile. The downside is severe; the upside is real but requires things to break right across a full season.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Coleman going at pick 151.2, which translates to round 13, pick 7 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our rankings place him at #242 overall. In practical terms, if you want Coleman, the market is pricing him well before the point where our rankings would suggest he offers positive value. He is a late-round depth add at best — a name to know if your roster needs a handcuff or a high-variance stash heading into the final rounds. His bye is Week 10, worth noting when setting your roster schedule.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 65.4 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 55.8 points.
Very wide. The p10 floor is 6.8 points and the p90 ceiling is 140.2 points, with a p75 of 97.4 — the band reflects significant season-to-season variance in outcomes.
Market ADP is 151.2, or round 13, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
He is ranked RB57 with a draftValue of -62.1, placing him #242 overall in Tier 9.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.