#333 overall · KC · 39.0 projected half-PPR pts · -76.8 Draft Value
Noah Gray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Noah Gray has logged three consecutive seasons as a target in Kansas City's offense. His 2024 season was his best on record: 49 targets, 40 receptions, 437 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown total is the clearest argument in his favor. The three-year average of 42.3 targets and 29.7 receptions per season shows a player with a defined, if modest, role. For a drafter building out a late roster, that kind of established presence in a productive offense is the floor the case rests on.
What the model projects
The projection is 39.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the tight end position, reflected in a draft value of -83.2 and a ranking of TE46, #300 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 35.1 points, slightly below the point estimate. Neither number suggests a meaningful fantasy contributor at current projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41 | 28 | 305 | 2 | 56.6 |
| 2024 | 49 | 40 | 437 | 5 | 93.3 |
| 2025 | 37 | 21 | 178 | — | 28.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 42.3 | 29.7 | 306.7 | 2.3 | 59.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 4.7 points. The 25th percentile is 15.5 points. The median is 35.1. The 75th percentile reaches 59.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 90.9 points. That 90.9-point ceiling is the only scenario where Gray becomes a usable fantasy asset. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is substantial, which means the result in any given season is highly uncertain. His 2025 line of 21 receptions, 37 targets, and 178 yards with no recorded touchdowns illustrates what the lower end of that band looks like in practice. His bye is Week 5.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Gray does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. He is a deep-roster consideration at best, and only in leagues where tight end scarcity forces a drafter to reach into the TE46 range. His Tier 9 placement and #300 overall rank reflect a player who projects below replacement level. Draft him only if every other option at the position has been exhausted.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 40 passes on 49 targets for 437 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is his best recorded season across all three years of history in the FACTS.
The projection is 39.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks TE46 and #300 overall with a draft value of -83.2, placing him in Tier 9.
The band runs from 4.7 points at the 10th percentile to 90.9 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 35.1 points. The spread is large, meaning outcomes vary significantly from season to season.
He has no market ADP across tracked platforms, so he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. He is a deep-roster option only, and only when tight end options above TE46 are gone.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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