#434 overall · LV · 154.5 projected half-PPR pts · -93.3 Draft Value
Kirk Cousins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a strong affirmative case here, and the facts say so plainly. Kirk Cousins lands at QB33 and #428 overall, a Tier 9 quarterback on the Las Vegas roster with a bye in Week 13. His three-year averages tell a consistent story: 344.3 pass attempts, 228.3 completions, 2,520 passing yards, and 15.3 passing touchdowns per season. The 2024 campaign was his most active stretch in the window, with 453 attempts, 3,508 yards, and 18 touchdowns, though it also produced 16 interceptions and 12 fumbles. The 2025 line was considerably shorter: 269 attempts, 1,721 yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown. For a drafter who needs a late-round emergency option or a streaming placeholder, the name is recognizable. That is the extent of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 154.5 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -105.9, meaning the projection sits 105.9 points below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is a Tier 9 placement and a QB33 ranking. The numbers do not suggest a viable starter in most formats.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 311 | 216 | 2331 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 25 | — | 6 | 154.7 |
| 2024 | 453 | 303 | 3508 | 18 | 16 | 23 | 0 | — | 12 | 192.3 |
| 2025 | 269 | 166 | 1721 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 108.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 344.3 | 228.3 | 2520 | 15.3 | 8.7 | 17 | 10.7 | 0.3 | 7 | 156.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed toward the low end. The p10 outcome is 33.4 points, the floor for a bad season in the bottom 10 percent of simulations. The p25 sits at 80.1 points. The median simulated season lands at 120.7 points, well below the 154.5 point estimate, which signals the distribution pulls upward from a low base. The p75 outcome reaches 199.0 points and the p90 tops out at 266.4 points. That upper tail exists, but the median and the floor make clear that the most likely outcomes cluster in territory that does not produce fantasy-relevant production. The three-year average of 8.7 interceptions per season, peaking at 16 in 2024, is a recurring drag on any positive scenario.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Cousins does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In most 12-team half-PPR leagues he will go undrafted entirely. At QB33 and #428 overall with a -105.9 draft value, he belongs at the very back of any queue, considered only if a roster emergency demands a free-agent-level placeholder. Plan your quarterback depth around other options well before this name comes up.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 154.5 half-PPR points and the draft value is -105.9, placing him at QB33 and #428 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers put him well below replacement level, which makes him a poor fit as a planned QB2 in most 12-team formats.
Over the last three seasons he averaged 344.3 pass attempts, 2,520 passing yards, and 15.3 passing touchdowns per year. The 2024 season was his busiest in the window at 453 attempts and 3,508 yards, but it also included 16 interceptions. The 2025 line was 269 attempts, 1,721 yards, and 10 passing touchdowns.
The p90 simulated outcome is 266.4 half-PPR points, meaning only the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach that level. The p75 outcome is 199.0 points. The median simulated season is 120.7 points, so the upside tail is real but narrow.
Cousins has no market ADP in 2026 public drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. In most leagues he will be available as an undrafted free agent, and his QB33 ranking reflects that standing.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.