Anders Carlson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Anders Carlson has NFL kicking experience across multiple seasons, including a 2023 campaign in which he connected on 27 of 33 field goal attempts with 34 extra points. His 2023 range showed comfort from distance: 20 makes from 0-39 yards, 4 from 40-49, and 3 from 50-plus. That kind of range profile is a real asset for a kicker in a functional offense. He now lines up for the Jets, giving him a new opportunity to accumulate volume. In the three-year aggregate from 2023 through 2025, he has made 20 field goals on 24 attempts with 23 extra points, keeping his miss total to 4 over that span.

What the model projects

The projection for Carlson is 69.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -96.7, placing him K37 and #361 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where the model lands on his expected contribution in a 12-team half-PPR context. The projection is the headline figure; the band tells a different story about variance, which is addressed in the next section.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band for Carlson is among the widest you will see at the position. The p10 and p25 both land at 0.0 points, meaning the bottom quarter of simulated seasons produces nothing. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at just 9.2 points. The p75 reaches 27.6, and the p90 jumps to 114.5. That shape, a flat bottom and a long right tail, reflects the high-variance nature of a kicker whose role or opportunity could shift dramatically. The 69.1 point projection sits well above the median simulated season, pulled upward by those high-end outcomes. Drafters should understand that the typical simulated season here is modest, and the upside is concentrated in a relatively narrow slice of outcomes.

How to draft him

Carlson does not have a market ADP available, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register a median pick. In a standard 12-team snake draft, kickers are typically taken in the final rounds, and Carlson's K37 ranking and #361 overall placement in Tier 9 reflect a player at the back of the position. If you are targeting him, expect to find him in the late rounds or on the waiver wire after your draft concludes. Given the extreme variance in his outcome band, including a 50th-percentile result of just 9.2 points, he is a speculative add rather than a foundational piece of a kicker strategy.

In 2023, Carlson made 27 of 33 field goal attempts and added 34 extra points on 39 attempts. His makes included 20 from 0-39 yards, 4 from 40-49, and 3 from 50-plus.

The projection is 69.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -96.7, ranking him K37 and #361 overall in Tier 9.

The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 and p25 all the way to 114.5 at the p90, with a median simulated season of just 9.2 points. The bottom quarter of simulated seasons produces zero fantasy points, while the top 10 percent reaches 114.5. The upside is real but concentrated in a narrow slice of outcomes.

No market ADP is available for Carlson, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. He is likely available as a late-round or post-draft waiver addition.