#142 overall · TB · 84.1 projected half-PPR pts · -26.1 Draft Value
Kenny Gainwell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Gainwell's 2025 season was a genuine step forward. He posted 537 rush yards and 114 attempts on the ground, then added 73 receptions on 85 targets for 486 receiving yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 3 receiving touchdowns. That receiving volume, 85 targets, is the number that separates 2025 from his earlier work: in 2023 he saw 37 targets and in 2024 just 22. The three-year averages (91 rush attempts, 48 targets, 39.7 receptions per season) still reflect the lighter usage of those earlier years, so 2025 looks like a meaningful expansion of his role rather than a one-season blip. Now with Tampa Bay, he carries that receiving-back profile into a new situation. RB37 is a deep-roster rank, but the underlying 2025 stat line gives a drafter something real to point to.
What the model projects
The projection is 99.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -29.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places him #147 overall and RB37, inside Tier 9. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 99.4 points, essentially in line with the point estimate. These are back-end-of-roster numbers, and the draft value reflects that plainly.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 84 | 364 | 2 | 37 | 30 | 183 | — | 3 | 80.4 |
| 2024 | 75 | 290 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 116 | — | — | 54.6 |
| 2025 | 114 | 537 | 5 | 85 | 73 | 486 | 3 | 2 | 184.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 91 | 397 | 2.7 | 48 | 39.7 | 261.7 | 1 | 1.7 | 108.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide relative to the projection, which is typical for a player at this tier. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at 24.6 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 54.5 points. The median sits at 99.4, the 75th percentile at 143.1, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 189.2 points. That upper band, 189.2 at p90, represents a scenario where his 2025 receiving role expands further and the touchdowns hold. The distance between p10 and p90 is 164.6 points, a span that reflects genuine uncertainty about how his role develops in Tampa Bay. His fumble history, 3 fumbles in 2023 and 2 in 2025, is a real floor risk worth keeping in mind.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Gainwell at pick 107.6 on average, which works out to round 9, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #147 overall. At his bye week of 10, plan accordingly if you are building a thin backfield. He is a late-roster add at best in most builds, and the wide outcome band means the upside is real but so is the floor. Target him only if you have already secured your core backfield and are looking for a receiving-back lottery ticket in the final rounds.
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Questions drafters ask
He ran 114 times for 537 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, and caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. That receiving volume was a sharp jump from 37 targets in 2023 and 22 in 2024.
The projection is 99.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of -29.3, placing him #147 overall and RB37 in Tier 9 of a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 24.6 points at the 10th percentile to 189.2 at the 90th. The median is 99.4. The low end is essentially a non-contributor; the high end reflects a scenario where his receiving role and touchdown rate both hold or grow.
The market ADP is 107.6, which translates to round 9, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He is a late-round target, not a player you need to reach for early.
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Beyond the rankings
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