#271 overall · BAL · 102.5 projected half-PPR pts · -63.4 Draft Value
Justin Tucker — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tucker's 2023 season is the version of this player that makes him worth a late-flier conversation. That year he connected on 32 of 37 field goal attempts, including 11 from 40-49 yards and 1 from 50-plus, while converting 51 of 52 extra point attempts. The volume was real: 37 attempts is a workload that produces kicker-relevant fantasy scoring. The three-year aggregate (2023-2025) shows 27 made field goals and 55.5 extra points per season on average, across 33.5 attempts and 57 extra point attempts. For a kicker drafted at the very end of a snake draft, that average production profile is the floor drafters are betting on.
What the model projects
The projection is 102.5 half-PPR fantasy points. Tucker is ranked #274 overall and K27 at his position, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -71.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 32 | 4 | 51 | 156.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | 8 | 60 | 135.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27 | 6 | 55.5 | 49.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Tucker is wide. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces essentially nothing. The p25 is 8.1 points. The median simulated season lands at 62.0 points. The p75 is 132.6 and the p90 reaches 184.8. That spread from floor to ceiling is substantial. The 2024 season illustrates the downside: 22 made field goals on 30 attempts, 8 misses, and a field goal rate that dropped sharply from 2023. The 2023 season illustrates the upside. Both are real possibilities, and the band reflects that.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Tucker has no market ADP available, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable pick number. In practice, that places him in undrafted or deep-waiver territory in most public drafts. His overall rank of #274 and position rank of K27 reflect a projection below replacement level. Drafters who carry a kicker late should understand the band: the median outcome is 62.0 points, the p90 is 184.8, and the p10 is 0.0. The 2023 workload shows what a high-end season looks like; the 2024 line shows what the floor looks like. Commit to him only if the roster construction leaves room for that variance at the kicker slot.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he made 32 of 37 field goal attempts (including 11 from 40-49 yards and 1 from 50-plus) and converted 51 of 52 extra points. In 2024 he made 22 of 30 attempts (5 from 40-49, 6 from 50-plus) with 8 misses, and converted 60 of 62 extra points. The attempt volume dropped from 37 to 30 and the miss total doubled.
The projection is 102.5 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #274 overall and K27 at his position, in Tier 9, with a draft value of -71.5.
The p10 outcome is 0.0 points and the p25 is 8.1, so the bottom quarter of simulated seasons is essentially scoreless. The median is 62.0 points, the p75 is 132.6, and the p90 is 184.8. The range is very wide, and the downside is severe.
There is no market ADP available for Tucker, so there is no consistent draft slot to reference. His rank of #274 overall and K27 reflect a below-replacement projection. He is a deep-draft or undrafted option in most formats.
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Beyond the rankings
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