#90 overall · MIN · 122.3 projected half-PPR pts · -6.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 96.4
Jordan Addison — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jordan Addison has posted back-to-back seasons of 875-plus receiving yards and nine-plus receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 2024, with 108 and 99 targets respectively in those years. Over three seasons, his per-year averages sit at 95.3 targets, 58.3 receptions, 798.7 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns. That is a consistent target share and a reliable red-zone presence. The touchdown production in particular, 10 scores in 2023 and 9 in 2024, is the kind of floor that keeps a receiver relevant in half-PPR formats even when yardage dips. His 2025 line of 79 targets, 42 receptions, 610 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns is a step back from those peaks, but the three-year averages still reflect a receiver who has operated as a genuine volume option in Minnesota's offense.
What the model projects
The projection for Addison is 122.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -6.5, placing him #90 overall and WR40 in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 120.2 points, close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around the projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 1 | 2 | — | 186.3 |
| 2024 | 99 | 63 | 875 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 181.0 |
| 2025 | 79 | 42 | 610 | 3 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 114.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 95.3 | 58.3 | 798.7 | 7.3 | 2 | 34.3 | 0.7 | 160.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 48.0 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 81.0. The median is 120.2. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 155.1 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons come in at or above 196.2. That is a spread of roughly 148 points between the p10 and p90, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. A strong outcome puts Addison in genuinely useful WR territory; a poor one makes him a near-zero contributor. His three-year history illustrates that variance directly: two seasons near or above 900 receiving yards with double-digit touchdown proximity, and one season at 610 yards and 3 scores.
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our projection
How to draft him
Addison is #90 overall and WR40 in Tier 9. His draftValue of -6.5 sits below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Market ADP, drawn from 2 platforms, is 96.4, which works out to pick 8.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That means the market is pulling him in the eighth round. His bye is Week 6, worth noting for roster management early in the season. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or a high-variance late-round target rather than a foundational pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 95.3 targets per season over three years, with 108 in 2023, 99 in 2024, and 79 in 2025. The three-year average reflects a consistent role as a volume option, though 2025 represented a notable dip.
In 2023 he caught 10 receiving touchdowns and in 2024 he caught 9, for a three-year average of 7.3 receiving touchdowns per season. His 2025 total of 3 receiving touchdowns was well below that average.
Market ADP across 2 platforms puts him at 96.4, which is pick 8.12 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, that is roughly when you would need to spend a pick.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons project at or above 196.2 half-PPR points. The bottom 10 percent finish at or below 48.0. The median simulated season is 120.2 points, close to the point estimate of 122.3.
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Beyond the rankings
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