#4 overall · IND · 251.3 projected half-PPR pts · +122.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 5.6
Jonathan Taylor — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonathan Taylor's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his ceiling: 1,585 rushing yards, 323 attempts, 18 rushing touchdowns, 46 receptions for 378 yards, and 2 receiving scores. That is a complete back operating at full volume. The three-year averages back the case just as firmly: 265 rush attempts, 1,252.3 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, and 27.7 receptions per season. The receiving work has grown each year, from 19 catches in 2023 to 46 in 2025, and the target share followed the same arc, from 23 to 55. Taylor is not a one-dimensional runner. He is a high-volume, high-efficiency back with a demonstrated pass-catching role, and that combination is what separates the elite tier from everyone below it.
What the model projects
The projection is 251.3 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +122.8 above replacement level at the running back position. That places Taylor at #4 overall and RB3 in the rankings, sitting in Tier 2. His bye week is 13.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 169 | 741 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 146.9 |
| 2024 | 303 | 1431 | 11 | 31 | 18 | 136 | 1 | 3 | 235.7 |
| 2025 | 323 | 1585 | 18 | 55 | 46 | 378 | 2 | 2 | 337.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 265 | 1252.3 | 12 | 36.3 | 27.7 | 222.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 241.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 154.6 points at the 10th percentile to 344.3 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 262.8 points, slightly above the 251.3 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 206.1 and the 75th is 311.1. That spread reflects the reality of a high-usage back: the upside is enormous, but the floor in a rough season is real. The fumble history is worth noting: Taylor has posted 2 or 3 fumbles in each of the last three seasons, with 1 fumble lost in both 2024 and 2025. Ball security is the one variable that can quietly erode a season's value.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Taylor at pick 1.06 in 12-team drafts, a median across two platforms. That is a late first-round commitment. At #4 overall with a +122.8 draft value surplus, the rankings place him firmly in the first round conversation. Plan to spend a first-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025, Taylor carried 323 times for 1,585 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns, caught 46 passes on 55 targets for 378 receiving yards, and added 2 receiving touchdowns. He also fumbled twice, losing one.
Taylor is ranked #4 overall and RB3, sitting in Tier 2. The projection is 251.3 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +122.8 above replacement level.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 154.6 points, while the 90th percentile reaches 344.3. The median simulated season is 262.8 points. There is meaningful downside, but the upside range is equally wide.
The market median is pick 5.6 overall, which translates to pick 1.06 in a 12-team snake draft. Expect to spend a late first-round pick to secure him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.