#2 overall · ATL · 285.7 projected half-PPR pts · +157.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 2.5
Bijan Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bijan Robinson has posted back-to-back seasons of 1,456 and 1,478 rushing yards, with 304 and 287 rush attempts respectively. The receiving work is just as real: 72 targets and 61 receptions in 2024, then 103 targets and 79 receptions in 2025. That 2025 target share is the clearest signal that Atlanta leans on him as a pass-catcher, not just a runner. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has averaged 268.3 rush attempts, 87 targets, 66 receptions, 1,303.3 rushing yards, and 579.3 receiving yards per year. The touchdowns have varied, from 8 combined in 2023 to 15 in 2024 and 11 in 2025, but the volume underneath those totals has been consistent and high. A draftValue of +157.3 points above replacement level reflects a player who produces across every counting category that matters in half-PPR formats.
What the model projects
The projection is 285.7 half-PPR fantasy points. Robinson is ranked #2 overall and RB2, sitting in Tier 1. His bye week is Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 214 | 976 | 4 | 86 | 58 | 487 | 4 | 4 | 217.3 |
| 2024 | 304 | 1456 | 14 | 72 | 61 | 431 | 1 | 1 | 309.2 |
| 2025 | 287 | 1478 | 7 | 103 | 79 | 820 | 4 | 4 | 329.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 268.3 | 1303.3 | 8.3 | 87 | 66 | 579.3 | 3 | 3 | 289.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 189.1 points at the 10th percentile to 378.6 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 297.2 points, slightly above the 285.7 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 240.5 and the 75th is 345.5, giving the middle half of outcomes a spread of roughly 105 points. Even the floor scenario, where 90 percent of simulated seasons finish above 189.1, still represents a meaningful fantasy contributor. The ceiling at the 90th percentile, 378.6 points, reflects a season where the rushing volume, receiving work, and touchdowns all converge at their upper ranges. The fumble history is worth noting: Robinson has lost three fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, with one lost in 2024, and that variance is part of what the lower end of the band captures.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Robinson's market ADP is 2.5, which works out to pick 1.03 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. In practical terms, you are spending the third overall pick to land him. At #2 overall with a draftValue of +157.3, he is one of the first names off the table in any format where this ranking applies. If you hold a top-three pick, Robinson is squarely in your decision window. Plan your roster construction around a Week 11 bye from the moment you make the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 87 targets and 66 receptions per year from 2023 through 2025. The 2025 season was his heaviest receiving year in that stretch, with 103 targets and 79 receptions for 820 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns.
Very consistent at the top end. He posted 214 rush attempts in 2023, 304 in 2024, and 287 in 2025, for a three-year average of 268.3 attempts per season. Yardage has followed: 976 in 2023, 1,456 in 2024, and 1,478 in 2025.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 189.1 half-PPR points. That is the floor that only 10 percent of simulated seasons fall below. The 25th percentile sits at 240.5 points, so a below-average season still projects into that range for three out of four outcomes.
His market ADP is 2.5, which translates to pick 1.03 in a 12-team draft. You need a top-three pick and the willingness to use it here. If you are not picking in the first three slots, the market says he will be gone before your turn.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.