#86 overall · DET · 250.2 projected half-PPR pts · -3.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 115.1
Jared Goff — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jared Goff has been one of the most consistent volume passers in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 574 pass attempts, 396.7 completions, 4,589.3 passing yards, and 33.7 passing touchdowns per season. That is a remarkably stable production floor. His interception total dropped from 12 in both 2023 and 2024 down to 8 in 2025, a meaningful improvement in ball security. Fumbles have been a persistent concern at 6.0 per season across the three-year window, but fumbles lost have stayed in the 4-5 range. The rushing contribution is modest, averaging 28.7 attempts and 40.7 yards per season, but it is real. The case here is durability and volume: three straight seasons of 4,500-plus passing yards and 30-plus passing touchdowns is a reliable foundation.
What the model projects
The projection for Goff is 250.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #86 overall and QB8 at his position, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -3.7, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level for a quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is consistent with his three-year historical average, reflecting a high-volume, low-mobility passing profile. His bye week falls in Week 6, which is worth noting for roster planning.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 605 | 407 | 4575 | 30 | 12 | 32 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 297.1 |
| 2024 | 539 | 390 | 4629 | 37 | 12 | 35 | 56 | — | 6 | 334.0 |
| 2025 | 578 | 393 | 4564 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 45 | — | 6 | 305.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 574 | 396.7 | 4589.3 | 33.7 | 10.7 | 28.7 | 40.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 318.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band for Goff is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 100.0 points, the 25th percentile at 183.3, and the median at 241.8. The 75th percentile reaches 306.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons comes in at 358.4 points. The gap between the median (241.8) and the headline projection (250.2) is modest. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentiles, 258.4 points, reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. A strong outcome pushes him well into QB1 territory; a poor one falls far short of his historical floor. That spread is the central risk consideration for any drafter targeting him as a starter.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Goff's market ADP is 115.1, which works out to pick 10.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #86 overall and QB8. If you are running a late-quarterback strategy, that is roughly the window where you would need to commit a pick to secure him. At QB8, he profiles as a back-of-roster starter or a high-upside streamer depending on your roster construction. His Week 6 bye is early enough that you will want a handcuff plan in place before the season starts.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection puts him at 250.2 points and QB8, which sits just below replacement level at a draft value of -3.7. His three-year average of 33.7 passing touchdowns and 4,589.3 passing yards shows consistent volume, but the model places him outside the top tier of quarterbacks for 2026.
The 75th-percentile simulated season lands at 306.3 points and the 90th percentile reaches 358.4. Those figures represent a meaningful upside scenario, well above his 250.2 projection, and would push him into strong QB1 production.
Interceptions dropped from 12 in both 2023 and 2024 to 8 in 2025. Fumbles have held steady at 6 per season across all three years, with fumbles lost at 4 in 2023 and 5 in 2025.
His market ADP is 115.1, which translates to pick 10.07 in a 12-team draft. That is the window, based on a median across two platforms, where you would need to spend a pick to land him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.