#298 overall · DAL · 40.0 projected half-PPR pts · -70.2 Draft Value
Emari Demercado — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Emari Demercado has logged carries in each of the last three seasons, and his 2025 line is his best on the ground: 44 attempts, 312 rush yards, and a receiving touchdown to go with 13 catches on 20 targets. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 42 rush attempts, 273 rush yards, 16.7 receptions, and 23.3 targets per season. He is a known commodity in the Dallas backfield with a demonstrated role in the passing game, and that floor of involvement is the core of whatever case exists here.
What the model projects
The projection is 40.5 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -88.3, placing Demercado at RB70 and #326 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries a Week 14 bye.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 58 | 284 | 2 | 30 | 21 | 119 | — | — | 62.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | 223 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 104 | — | — | 46.7 |
| 2025 | 44 | 312 | — | 20 | 13 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 51.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 42 | 273 | 1 | 23.3 | 16.7 | 108 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 54.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 0.0 points; the 25th percentile is 7.5. The median simulated season produces 23.7 points. It takes a 75th-percentile outcome to reach 59.5 points, and only the top 10 percent of simulated seasons clears 94.6. The three-year average of 0.3 fumbles per season includes a fumble lost in 2025, a detail that matters in high-leverage situations. Most simulated seasons end with very little fantasy production; the upside exists but requires a specific set of circumstances to materialize.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Demercado is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a free pickup in most drafts rather than a pick you need to spend. At RB70 and #326 overall, he belongs at the very back of any draft list, if he appears at all. The realistic use case is a late-round handcuff stash or a waiver-wire name to keep in mind during the Dallas bye in Week 14.
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Questions drafters ask
He has posted 20 or more targets in each of the last three seasons, with a three-year average of 23.3 targets and 16.7 receptions. The receiving involvement is real, though modest.
A 75th-percentile simulated season produces 59.5 half-PPR points; a 90th-percentile outcome reaches 94.6. Those are the upper ranges of what the model sees as realistic.
He lost a fumble in 2025, and the three-year average is 0.3 fumbles per season. It is a small sample but worth noting for anyone considering him in a role that could expand.
There is no market ADP available, which means he is not being consistently drafted across platforms. He is effectively a free agent in most drafts, not a pick you need to budget for.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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