#188 overall · LAC · 73.6 projected half-PPR pts · -42.1 Draft Value
David Njoku — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
David Njoku's 2023 season is the anchor for any optimistic read: 123 targets, 81 receptions, 882 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. That is a legitimate TE1 workload, and it happened. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story, with receptions averaging 59.3, targets 89.3, and receiving yards 560 per season, but the ceiling is documented. He has also shown a consistent ability to find the end zone, averaging 5 receiving touchdowns across those three seasons. For a drafter willing to wait at the position, Njoku represents a player whose best-case outcome is grounded in something he has actually done.
What the model projects
The projection is 76.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Njoku at TE23 and #193 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -44.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 81.1 points, runs slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution. Neither number suggests a starter-caliber season at current projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 123 | 81 | 882 | 6 | 2 | 160.7 |
| 2024 | 97 | 64 | 505 | 5 | — | 112.5 |
| 2025 | 48 | 33 | 293 | 4 | — | 69.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 89.3 | 59.3 | 560 | 5 | 0.7 | 115.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 28.5 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy total. The 25th percentile sits at 51.4 points, still a difficult number to build around. The median lands at 81.1 points. Move toward the optimistic end and the picture improves meaningfully: the 75th percentile is 104.5 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 134.8 points. That top-decile outcome is a functional TE1 season. The spread from floor to ceiling is among the widest a drafter will encounter at the position, which means the outcome depends heavily on which version of Njoku shows up. His recent three-season trend, with targets declining from 123 to 97 to 48, frames the downside risk plainly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Njoku is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. At TE23 and #193 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, he is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration rather than a planned starter. His bye falls in Week 7, worth noting for roster management. The upside at the 90th percentile is real, but the projection and the three-year trend both point toward a player best treated as a speculative add rather than a positional cornerstone.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection of 76.1 points and a draft value of -44.3 place him below replacement level at TE in a 12-team half-PPR format. At TE23 and #193 overall in Tier 9, the model does not project him as a starter-caliber option. His 90th-percentile outcome of 134.8 points shows the ceiling exists, but the median simulated season of 81.1 points and a 10th-percentile floor of 28.5 points reflect significant downside risk.
Targets have declined in each of the last three seasons: 123 in 2023, 97 in 2024, and 48 in 2025. The three-year average is 89.3 targets per season, pulled up by the 2023 outlier. Receptions followed the same pattern: 81, 64, and 33. Receiving yards were 882, 505, and 293 respectively.
Njoku does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is not a player you need to target at a specific pick; he is available as a late add or off the waiver wire in most formats.
Njoku has scored between 4 and 6 receiving touchdowns in each of the last three seasons, with a three-year average of 5. That consistency is the clearest argument for his floor. His 2023 season of 6 touchdowns on 81 receptions shows what the ceiling looks like when volume is present.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.