#280 overall · NYJ · 183.6 projected half-PPR pts · -64.2 Draft Value
Geno Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Geno Smith arrives in New York with three consecutive seasons of starter-level volume behind him. Over the 2023-2025 stretch he averaged 508.3 pass attempts, 3,656.3 passing yards, and 20 passing touchdowns per season. He also adds a modest ground dimension, averaging 43.7 rush attempts and 178.7 rush yards per year across that same window. His best single-season rushing output came in 2024, when he posted 272 rush yards and 2 rushing touchdowns on 53 attempts. The floor here is a quarterback who will see the field and throw the ball at a high volume. For a drafter in a two-QB or superflex league who needs a streamer or a late handcuff, that workload history is the entire argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 183.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits against a draft value of -77.3, placing Smith at QB27 and #285 overall in Tier 9. The projection reflects a quarterback who is expected to produce below replacement level at the position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week falls in Week 13.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 499 | 323 | 3624 | 20 | 9 | 37 | 155 | 1 | 5 | 231.8 |
| 2024 | 578 | 407 | 4320 | 21 | 15 | 53 | 272 | 2 | 7 | 281.0 |
| 2025 | 448 | 302 | 3025 | 19 | 17 | 41 | 109 | — | 4 | 188.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 508.3 | 344 | 3656.3 | 20 | 13.7 | 43.7 | 178.7 | 1 | 5.3 | 236.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 51.1 points, a figure that represents a season going badly wrong. The 25th percentile lands at 103.8 points. The median simulated season comes in at 154.7 points, notably below the 183.6 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 234.1 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome climbs to 302.7 points. That gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes, 51.1 to 302.7, is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position. The upside scenario is a real number; so is the floor. His 2025 interception total of 17 on 448 attempts, and 15 interceptions on 578 attempts in 2024, are part of the historical record that shapes that downside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Smith is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At QB27 and #285 overall in Tier 9, he projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a late-draft or waiver-wire name in single-QB leagues. In two-QB or superflex formats, the volume history and the 90th-percentile ceiling of 302.7 points make him worth monitoring, but the -77.3 draft value is the honest starting point for any roster decision.
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Questions drafters ask
At QB27 and #285 overall with a draft value of -77.3, he projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR single-QB format. He has no market ADP, meaning the public is not consistently spending picks on him. He is a streaming or waiver option in that format, not a roster target on draft day.
Over 2023-2025 he averaged 508.3 pass attempts, 3,656.3 passing yards, and 20 passing touchdowns per season. His interception totals were 9 in 2023, 15 in 2024, and 17 in 2025. He also averaged 43.7 rush attempts and 178.7 rush yards per year across that window, with his best rushing season coming in 2024 at 272 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The simulated season band runs from 51.1 points at the 10th percentile to 302.7 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 154.7 points, and the point projection is 183.6. That is a substantial spread, meaning the difference between a bad season and a good one is very large relative to the baseline projection.
It adds some. He averaged 43.7 rush attempts and 178.7 rush yards per season over 2023-2025, with a peak of 272 rush yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in 2024. That ground contribution is real but modest, and it has not been enough to lift his overall projection above the QB27 position rank.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.