#211 overall · TEN · 62.8 projected half-PPR pts · -52.4 Draft Value
Elic Ayomanor — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Elic Ayomanor's 2025 season is the only NFL receiving history on record, and it is a legitimate one: 89 targets, 41 receptions, 515 yards, and 4 touchdowns as a Tennessee Titan. That target volume is the foundation of any case for him. Eighty-nine looks in a single season means someone in that offense was feeding him the ball consistently, and four scores add a touchdown floor that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even when yardage is modest. For a drafter willing to roster a high-variance depth piece late, that 2025 line is the starting point for a real conversation.
What the model projects
The projection is 62.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Ayomanor sits at #259 overall and WR87, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -65.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is 62.8; that is the point estimate, not the median of the outcome band, and the two differ meaningfully here.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 89 | 41 | 515 | 4 | 96.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 89 | 41 | 515 | 4 | 96.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 5.0 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 20.3, so a significant portion of simulated seasons produce near-nothing. The median simulated season is 44.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 78.2, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 124.1 points. That 124.1 ceiling is the number a speculative drafter is chasing. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile, 5.0 to 124.1, reflects a player whose season-to-season variance is substantial. Most simulated seasons finish well below the point estimate; the upside tail is real but narrow.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Ayomanor does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is a free agent on most draft days, available as a late add or waiver-wire target rather than a pick you need to plan around. At WR87 and #259 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the back end of rosters in deeper leagues or as a stash in formats that reward upside speculation. His bye is Week 9. Roster him only if you have the depth to absorb the high probability of a low-end outcome.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him WR87 and #259 overall with a draft value of -65.9, placing him below replacement level. He has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, so he is not being consistently selected. In standard 12-team formats he is a late-roster or waiver-wire option, not a pick you need to budget for.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 124.1 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of outcomes. The median simulated season is 44.1 points, so the ceiling is real but the typical outcome is well below it.
His entire NFL receiving history is one season: 2025, when he logged 89 targets, 41 receptions, 515 yards, and 4 touchdowns with Tennessee. There is no prior NFL receiving data on record.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 5.0 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 20.3. A meaningful share of simulated seasons produce near-zero fantasy value, which is the core risk for any drafter considering him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.