#392 overall · CLE · 77.8 projected half-PPR pts · -88.1 Draft Value
Dustin Hopkins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dustin Hopkins has a legitimate long-range track record. In 2023 he connected on 10 field goals from 40-49 yards and 8 from 50-plus, finishing 33-of-36 on field goal attempts with only 3 misses. That is a clean accuracy profile at distance. The three-year aggregate from 2023-2025 shows 25.5 made field goals per season against 5.5 misses, on 31.5 attempts, with 20.5 extra points. A kicker who consistently gets opportunities from range and converts them is the floor of what you want at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 77.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Hopkins ranks K35 and sits at #324 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -88.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | 3 | 24 | 146.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | 8 | 17 | 76.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 25.5 | 5.5 | 20.5 | 15.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The p10 and p25 both sit at 0.0 points, meaning in at least a quarter of simulated seasons Hopkins scores nothing. The median outcome (p50) is 11.8 points. The p75 is 59.5 and the p90 reaches 145.5. That shape reflects a high-variance situation: most simulated seasons cluster near zero, but the upper tail is substantial. The 2024 season illustrates the downside concretely: 18 made field goals, 8 misses, and only 17 extra points on 20 attempts, a significant step back from his 2023 output.
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our projection
How to draft him
Hopkins is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. At K35 and #324 overall with a negative draft value, he is a late-roster consideration at best, and only in leagues where kickers are required. The band's heavy concentration at zero in the lower percentiles means the realistic use case is a streaming option rather than a roster anchor. If you need a kicker, the rankings place him well outside the range where you would commit a meaningful pick.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him K35 and #324 overall with a draft value of -88.1, which is below replacement level at the position. The projection is 77.8 points, but the median simulated season lands at just 11.8, and both the p10 and p25 sit at 0.0. The numbers do not support spending a meaningful pick on him.
In 2023 he went 33-of-36 on field goals, including 10 from 40-49 yards and 8 from 50-plus, with 24 extra points. In 2024 he made 18 of 27 field goal attempts with 8 misses, including 5 from 40-49 and 4 from 50-plus, with 17 extra points. The 2024 line represents a notable drop in both volume and accuracy.
Across the 2023-2025 aggregate, he averages 25.5 made field goals, 5.5 misses, 31.5 attempts, and 20.5 extra points per season.
The p10 and p25 are both 0.0, the p50 is 11.8, the p75 is 59.5, and the p90 is 145.5. That shape means a large share of simulated seasons produce little to no fantasy scoring, while a smaller share of seasons reach meaningful totals. The 2024 season, where he missed 8 field goals on 27 attempts, shows the kind of outcome that populates the lower end of that band.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.